Is anyone immune?

To date, three banks I can think of have remained largely unscathed by credit-related writedowns. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Credit Suisse, while Lehman’s writedowns have been small relative to others. My hunch, and it’s nothing more than a hunch, is that none of these companies will escape without writing down anything.

Today, Credit Suisse is joining the bangwagon, though it’s writedown is rather small:

Swiss bank Credit Suisse, until now relatively unscathed by the credit crisis, Tuesday said first-quarter earnings will be reduced by $1 billion from mismarkings and pricing errors by traders which led to the reduction in the value of some asset-backed securities by $2.85 billion.

The news came only a week after the company reported robust fourth-quarter profits largely free of any impact from subprime-credit exposure. The Zurich-based bank said it is reviewing whether the change in value of the securities will impact last year’s earnings as well.

I find it interesting that the bank is blaming its traders for misvaluing securities like CDOs. Methinks that’s a cop-out by higher ups trying to avoid taking responsibility.

Goldman and JP Morgan will have large writedowns on their leveraged loan portfolio I’m guessing.

But the market is anticipating some of this. Goldman’s stock is well off of its high near $250…..always dangerous to short those guys, but I certainly wouldn’t be a buyer here. It’s too early.

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Post script: missed an article this morning noting that Lehman is about to take one on the shoulder……..

In recent weeks, credit markets have worsened, and Lehman believes it is now facing a write-down in the $1.3 billion range, according to people familiar with the matter. That has risen from a recent estimate of $800 million to $1 billion, and from a $830 million write-down in the fourth quarter.

This may be a prelude to a shot square in the face. The article notes that Lehman has $93 billion worth of securities on its balance sheet that may be vulnerable to writedowns:

• $39 billion of commercial real estate loans
• $37 billion of residential mortgage exposure, including $18 billion worth of Alt-A mortgages
• $13 billion in loan commitments to junk-rated borrowers
• $4 billion of leveraged buyout commitments

With only $19 billion or so of tangible equity “even a relatively small percentage decrease in that $93 billion could gouge out a substantial chunk from the firm’s tangible capital.”

Lookout below.

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