Archive for the ‘international trade’ Category

Congressman Warns Chinese to Expect Bigger U.S. Deficits

Tuesday, June 9th, 2009

From Breitbart: China Airs Fears on U.S. Debt, Dollar According to Lawmaker Senior Chinese leaders have privately voiced fear over the soaring US budget deficit and are increasingly looking to diversify from the dollar, a Republican congressman said. "We heard across the board -- in private -- substantial, continuing and rising concern," ...

FT: Brazil/China planning to replace dollar

Monday, May 18th, 2009

Earlier, WSJ reported that Brazil had turned to the Chinese for help financing its domestic oil business.  In return, the Chinese would get guaranteed oil supplies.  That's not all President Lula was discussing on his trip to Beijing.....(FT) Brazil and China will work towards using their own currencies in trade transactions ...

The Strategic Problem of Debt

Friday, March 6th, 2009

Brad Setser wrote a fantastic report last September highlighting the strategic problem of borrowing.  In it he argued that too much debt will constrain our policy options.  That's a polite way of putting it.  If there's a run on the dollar, many policy options won't simply be constrained.  They'll be ...

Japan’s Depression

Sunday, February 15th, 2009

The Japanese took too long to fix their banking system, allowing zombie banks to linger for a decade before they were dealt with.  And since 1991, the economy has spent $6.3 trillion on infrastructure stimulus to keep the economy going.  Timmy Geithner has said they didn't spend enough. Perhaps they did ...

Suez, America-style

Tuesday, August 26th, 2008

It's no longer any secret that the USA is deeply in hock to foreign governments, particularly China, Japan, the Petro States, and increasingly Russia. We have two very large deficits that have to be financed: a trade deficit and a fiscal deficit. Americans buy more than they sell. ...

Foreigners push back….

Wednesday, August 20th, 2008

How often does the NY Post beat the Journal and the Times to a good financial story? Today they did, noting that Lehman tried to secure $5 billion of rescue capital from South Korea, but failed to do so: Lehman Brothers' embattled Chief Executive Dick Fuld nearly struck a deal ...

Abu Dhabi negotiating to buy Chrysler building

Wednesday, June 11th, 2008

The latest high profile investment by a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) may be Abu Dhabi's purchase of the Chrysler building here in New York. This is making headlines because of the nature of the transaction. A landmark American building, being purchased by an Arab investment fund with $875 billion to ...

The New Dollar Carry Trade?

Sunday, June 8th, 2008

There's been much chatter recently from bloggers covering China's economy. It seems China is raking in foreign reserves at an astonishing rate so far this year. Perhaps as much as $365 billion through April. Drilling down into the sources of that cash suggests the emergence of a new ...

Oil up $10 a barrel so far today

Friday, June 6th, 2008

--Update 2:28PM: oil now up over $11-- Oil is near $139 a barrel as I write this, a record high even after accounting for inflation. Lots going on here. The biggest issue may be comments from the European Central Bank Chair suggesting a possible rate increase later this year. Interest ...

Smart money is betting against the dollar

Monday, May 26th, 2008

Not long ago, I wrote a post about the dollar's value and its relationship to interest rates. Part of that piece was concerned with the pressure some countries are feeling to break their currencies' peg to the dollar, in particular the petro states and China. Their economies are importing ...

Good news!

Saturday, May 24th, 2008

The stock market was down again last week, consumer confidence is at 30 year lows, house prices are declining nationwide for the first time. Is there any good news to report about the economy? Indeed there is: a gallon of gas is approaching $4 per gallon, which I ...

Volcker warns: Don’t repeat the 70s

Thursday, May 15th, 2008

If Ben Bernanke keeps his present course, former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker warns we could repeat the 70s. "Core" inflation is still within the Fed's "comfort zone," but at a certain point, rising food and energy costs may pull other prices along with them. That's the opposite of ...

Thriftville vs. Squanderville

Sunday, March 30th, 2008

An oldie but a goodie (via Andrew Abraham). Warren Buffett explains in allegory why the trade deficit is bad news for the dollar over the long-run. [He wrote this piece in 2003, by the way. Since then, America's current account balance has worsened significantly.] And it's not ...